Key Takeaways The Eurodollar system remains a predominantly private, offshore network of dollar credit, but it can no longer be understood as wholly beyond the reach of the Federal Reserve. Since 2008, dollar shortages in that system have repeatedly drawn the Fed into the role of ultimate crisis backstop. Federal Reserve swap lines are the...Read More

The United States stands at a critical juncture in the evolution of the global financial order. For decades, the dollar’s dominance has rested on two pillars: the unrivalled liquidity of the US Treasury market and the political confidence that America’s fiscal and institutional system would remain credible and thus supportive of the continuation of the...Read More

Before we turn to our 12 things to watch in the global economy in 2020, let us briefly review 2019. The deterioration in the global economic and geopolitical environments continued unabated last year. In a tumultuous year that has now drawn to a close, the global economy experienced its slowest growth rates in a decade,...Read More

The ‘America First’ Endgame argues that we are currently witnessing the ‘endgame’ of the international system established by the USA in the immediate post-WWII period. It is against this background that the US has enacted a new monetary, fiscal, trade and foreign policy mix, ‘America First’, which amounts to a coherent and comprehensive financial war...Read More

The escalating USA trade war must be seen as part of a much wider US push-back against a rising China, and indeed much of the global system that is considered not to be acting in the American interest. For China, this raises concerns over the impact on its economy and highly integrated domestic and international...Read More

After President Trump killed the Iran nuclear deal in early May, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, later in the same month, announced that crushing new sanctions against Iran are coming in a speech at the Heritage Foundation – unless Iran effectively agrees to a ‘self regime-change’, in the words of Jonathan Cristol writing for...Read More

Cyber attacks have become an integral part of modern warfare and have significantly leveled the playing field, affording even 2nd and 3rd ranked powers the ability to inflict major, if not lethal, damage on any given adversary. In the past few years there have been some very high-profile instances of alleged cyber warfare, which in...Read More

The outcome of the recent referendum on the question of Britain’s membership in the European Union has many important implications. These range from the exact modalities of Britain’s future relationship with the EU and other EU-member states, the free movement of labour on the continent, the continued stability of the UK housing market, financial services...Read More

Atlanticists on both side of the pond have used the current standoff with Russia over Ukraine to reassert the centrality of NATO and of the transatlantic partnership. Continued interest in a united and purposeful West is a good thing, but the conceptual basis of the transatlantic relationship is outdated and in urgent need of overhaul....Read More

It has been over a week since Egypt’s first democratically elected president was ousted by the Egyptian army after mass protests. But violence has already erupted between the followers of Mohamed Morsi and his opponents, the army and security forces, leading many commentators to speculate that Egypt is heading for civil war. The broader implications...Read More