On April 17th, 2021, Justin Drake, an ethereum researcher, dropped a tweet estimating the change in “net annual buy pressure” as a result of the Ethereum network’s coming upgrades, EIP1559 and Proof of Stake. He linked to a spreadsheet showing his work and analogized the shift in buy pressure to the amount in the ETH2.0 deposit contract and Grayscale1.
When I saw the spreadsheet, I realized he was dramatically underselling the effect. Using his math, I calculated that sell pressure would drop 90%, the effect of more than 3 bitcoin halving events. Cryptocurrency enthusiasts model nearly all of their predictions of price around the bitcoin halving events, so I didn’t think twice about it. However, when I saw the response to my thread, I realized most of twitter just thought I was posting as a way to pump ethereum on crypto twitter.
I was not. I am glad that “the triple halving” meme really clicked for everyone as to how big the coming shift is for ethereum. I believe every word I wrote. But the triple halving is more than a meme or an analogy. It’s a legitimate thesis on how asset prices are affected by shifting money flows. The reaction to my tweet was a reaction to a crypto hype thread3, when what I was trying to communicate was much more sophisticated. I truly believe the world is dramatically underestimating the price change we’re about to see.
The “triple halving” isn’t just a pump, it is an analysis of financial flows to model the way Bitcoin moves as a result of the halving event and forecast what will happen to the price of Ethereum by January 2023. In this report I hope to write an institutional grade analysis of Ethereum towards an audience who may be skeptical of cryptocurrency as an asset class.