Ethereum, The Triple Halving

On April 17th, 2021, Justin Drake, an ethereum researcher, dropped a tweet estimating the change in “net annual buy pressure” as a result of the Ethereum network’s coming upgrades, EIP1559 and Proof of Stake. He linked to a spreadsheet showing his work and analogized the shift in buy pressure to the amount in the ETH2.0 deposit contract and Grayscale1.

When I saw the spreadsheet, I realized he was dramatically underselling the effect. Using his math, I calculated that sell pressure would drop 90%, the effect of more than 3 bitcoin halving events. Cryptocurrency enthusiasts model nearly all of their predictions of price around the bitcoin halving events, so I didn’t think twice about it. However, when I saw the response to my thread, I realized most of twitter just thought I was posting as a way to pump ethereum on crypto twitter.

I was not. I am glad that “the triple halving” meme really clicked for everyone as to how big the coming shift is for ethereum. I believe every word I wrote. But the triple halving is more than a meme or an analogy. It’s a legitimate thesis on how asset prices are affected by shifting money flows. The reaction to my tweet was a reaction to a crypto hype thread3, when what I was trying to communicate was much more sophisticated. I truly believe the world is dramatically underestimating the price change we’re about to see.

The “triple halving” isn’t just a pump, it is an analysis of financial flows to model the way Bitcoin moves as a result of the halving event and forecast what will happen to the price of Ethereum by January 2023. In this report I hope to write an institutional grade analysis of Ethereum towards an audience who may be skeptical of cryptocurrency as an asset class.

DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT HERE.

About the GPI

The Global Policy Institute is a research institute on international affairs. It is based in the City of London, and draws on both a rich pool of international thinkers, academics as well as policy and business professionals. The Institute gives non-partisan guidance to policymakers and decision takers in business, government, and NGOs.

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