Bangladesh–India relations have long been shaped by shared geography, cultural affinities, and deep economic interdependence. Yet these ties have oscillated between close cooperation and periodic tension, reflecting domestic political shifts and changing regional dynamics.
The departure of Sheikh Hasina from Bangladesh’s political stage marks a watershed moment in South Asian geopolitics. For over a decade and a half, Hasina’s leadership provided India with a predictable and cooperative partner, one that ensured security coordination, facilitated transit access to India’s northeast, and aligned closely with New Delhi’s regional connectivity initiatives. Hasina’s exit has disrupted this equilibrium, introducing uncertainty and compelling both countries to reassess their strategic assumptions amid an evolving regional order.
India now faces a dual challenge: managing its own weakened domestic mandate and heightened international scrutiny over democratic practices, while responding to Bangladesh’s increasingly assertive foreign policy diversification. Dhaka’s renewed outreach to Pakistan and its deepening engagement with China, particularly in infrastructure, energy, and connectivity, signal a deliberate shift toward multipolar diplomacy. Proposals such as humanitarian corridors to Myanmar and discussions of trilateral initiatives involving China and Pakistan underscore this transformation, amplifying Indian strategic anxieties and reshaping the balance of power in the Bay of Bengal.
Political Transition and Strategic Anxiety
India’s unease following Bangladesh’s political transition stems from its long-standing reliance on stability under the Awami League. The fall of that administration has forced New Delhi to engage with a more unpredictable and less deferential political environment in Dhaka. Rather than adopting a pragmatic recalibration, India’s initial responses, ranging from trade restrictions to more aggressive border management, appear reactive and coercive. These actions reflect discomfort with the loss of a familiar political partner rather than strategic adaptability to Bangladesh’s changing priorities.
India’s strategic vulnerabilities further intensify these anxieties. Its northeast remains heavily dependent on transit routes through Bangladesh for access to ports and markets, given the fragility of the Siliguri Corridor. The interim government’s emphasis on sovereignty, balanced diplomacy, and engagement with China and Pakistan has heightened Indian concerns. Statements such as “Bangladesh is India’s path to the sea” are perceived in New Delhi as patronising and provocative. Meanwhile, nationalist sentiment in both countries has deepened mistrust: anti-India narratives in Bangladesh are fuelled by perceptions of interference, while political rhetoric in India linking Bangla-speaking populations to illegal migration has hardened public attitudes. Together, these dynamics threaten to erode two decades of cooperation.
Sheikh Hasina’s Verdict
The conviction of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina represents a defining moment for Bangladesh’s domestic politics and its external relations. For India, which long regarded Hasina as a strategic ally, the verdict signals the end of a predictable era and raises complex diplomatic questions.
New Delhi is now caught between defending a former partner and maintaining neutrality to avoid alienating Bangladesh’s emerging leadership. This delicate balancing act raises unresolved issues surrounding asylum, extradition, and diplomatic precedent. At the same time, Hasina’s fall has opened political space for new actors advocating assertive nationalism, diversified foreign partnerships, and potential renegotiation of key bilateral agreements, particularly those related to water sharing, border management, and trade.
Public sentiment in Bangladesh, shaped by perceptions of Hasina’s closeness to India, increasingly demands a more independent foreign policy. India’s response will play a decisive role in determining whether bilateral relations evolve toward mutual respect or descend into sustained mistrust. The post-Hasina phase thus presents both uncertainty and opportunity: a chance to redefine the relationship on more balanced and institutional foundations.
Geopolitical Realignment
The post-Hasina transition coincides with broader geopolitical shifts across South Asia. India’s domestic political position has weakened due to a narrower electoral mandate and mounting international criticism over human rights and democratic governance. Simultaneously, Bangladesh’s diplomatic diversification reflects a conscious rebalancing of regional alignments, including revived engagement with Pakistan and expanded cooperation with China.
These developments challenge India’s traditional dominance in the Bay of Bengal. Strategies rooted in asymmetrical power and historical affinity are proving less effective against an increasingly assertive Dhaka. The emergence of a “New Bangladesh”, one that prioritises sovereignty and equality over patronage, signals a structural shift in regional politics. Declining high-level engagement and the erosion of back-channel diplomacy heighten the risk of miscalculation, raising concerns about long-term regional stability.
Strategic and Security Dimensions
Since 2024, India has adopted a more militarised posture toward Bangladesh, marked by the reactivation of the Kailashahar airbase, expanded Border Security Force (BSF) patrols, and enhanced infrastructure development in the northeast. These measures signal India’s readiness to exert pressure in defence of its strategic interests.
Concurrently, reports of BSF “push-ins”, the forcible deportation of Bangla-speaking individuals, Rohingya refugees, and even Indian citizens into Bangladesh, have raised serious humanitarian and legal concerns. Such actions contravene international norms and bilateral frameworks, including the 1975 Joint Guidelines and the 2011 Coordinated Border Management Plan. The humanitarian consequences are severe, as many deportees lack legal documentation and protection under international refugee conventions.
Border killings of unarmed Bangladeshi civilians by the BSF continue to inflame public anger and strain diplomatic ties, undermining the cooperative ethos of India’s “Neighbourhood First” policy. Although fatalities have declined compared to earlier decades, long-term data indicate that thousands of Bangladeshis have been killed or injured over time, underscoring the persistence of structural problems in border governance.
Security and Legal Concerns
From an international legal perspective, India’s current border practices raise serious ethical and legal questions. Forcible expulsions without due process violate global conventions as well as bilateral mechanisms designed to manage cross-border movement humanely.
The political motivations behind these actions are evident, particularly in Indian states such as Assam and West Bengal, where citizenship, ethnicity, and security narratives intersect. The deportation of Bengali-speaking individuals, many of whom are Indian citizens or registered refugees, reflects domestic political pressures rather than genuine security imperatives.
Bangladesh, despite its vulnerabilities, has exercised restraint by refraining from retaliatory measures such as suspending transit rights or restricting port access. However, continued violations could prompt Dhaka to internationalise the issue through UN bodies or human rights mechanisms, escalating a bilateral problem into a broader diplomatic dispute.
China’s Expanding Footprint
China has emerged as a major investor in Bangladesh, now frequently cited as the country’s second-largest source of foreign investment. Chinese capital is concentrated in infrastructure, energy, and industrial zones, with growing commitments under bilateral cooperation frameworks.
Beyond investment, China has advanced ambitious connectivity visions, including trans-Himalayan and Bay of Bengal corridors linking Chattogram to Gwadar. These initiatives challenge India-led projects such as the India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral Highway and dilute New Delhi’s regional integration strategy.
As Bangladesh and Pakistan increasingly align with China’s connectivity agenda, India’s strategic influence faces sustained pressure. Over the medium to long term, such alignment could institutionalise China’s role as a central actor in South Asian geopolitics, promoting a multipolar regional order rooted in economic statecraft and collaborative security frameworks.
Opportunities for Cooperation
Despite mounting challenges, the evolving political landscape also presents opportunities to strengthen India–Bangladesh relations on institutional rather than personality-driven foundations. Economic interdependence remains a critical stabiliser. In FY 2024–25, bilateral trade reached approximately $13.5 billion, though Bangladesh’s exports to India accounted for just over $2 billion, highlighting a persistent trade imbalance.
Connectivity offers mutual benefits: India gains reliable access to its northeast, while Bangladesh secures market access and investment inflows. Expanding trade agreements, easing border restrictions, and facilitating visa regimes could rebuild trust. Simultaneously, sensitive issues such as water sharing, border management, and transit rights require transparent and mutually respectful negotiation.
Bangladesh’s diversified diplomacy and India’s adaptive engagement will be essential for sustaining bilateral harmony. Regional platforms such as BIMSTEC and SAARC, alongside climate-finance initiatives, provide multilateral avenues for cooperation. People-to-people diplomacy through cultural, educational, and media exchanges, can further counter negative narratives and reinforce societal ties.
Conclusion
Bangladesh–India relations have entered a transformative phase following Sheikh Hasina’s departure, defined by uncertainty and strategic recalibration. While political disruptions have strained traditional patterns of engagement, deep economic interdependence and shared security concerns ensure that cooperation remains indispensable.
The future trajectory will depend on Bangladesh’s domestic political evolution, India’s capacity for policy adaptation, and the influence of external actors such as China, Pakistan, and the United States. Rather than a rupture, the relationship is likely to experience selective collaboration and cautious hedging as both sides seek a new equilibrium.
Success will hinge on institutional resilience, mutual respect for sovereignty, and pragmatic diplomacy. As South Asia enters an increasingly multipolar phase, India and Bangladesh must prioritise durable mechanisms and people-centric engagement to avoid strategic drift, an enduring test of statesmanship that will shape the region’s future for years to come.